AI – when will all this “goodness” happen?

The futurist does not predict the dates, he provides scenarios for the audience to choose from. I am a fan of Ray Kurzweil, who in his book “The Age of Spiritual Machines” gave a detailed forecast of what will happen 10, 20, 30… years ahead. Since then he has been on the defensive. In this post I will try to imagine what will happen in the education system in the coming decades.

>> 0-5 years – Currently the technology is immature, we see its potential, but there are still problems with the quality of the answers, copyrights, and above all it is difficult to aim for the desired result (excessive independence). Therefore, in the first years, the education system will embrace the change, invest in teacher training, purchase applications and required hardware, articles, R&D… and at the same time will prohibit the use of technology in school areas, sanction users, use tool to detect illegal use… At the same time, the students will adopt the possibilities inherent in technology and develop skills in using it. In my estimation, no more than 5% of the study time will be done using artificial intelligence.

>> 5-10 years – One of the phenomena that is already seen is that people who are not skilled in a certain profession are able to achieve good performance with the help of artificial intelligence – a person without talent in painting or music creates paintings and music, a person without a legal background creates and checks contracts, a person without training in programming writes software. Some professions will be completely replaced, but in most cases, the use of technology will be alongside the professionals. For example, when the word processor arrived, the typing profession almost disappeared, but mostly the word processor was adopted by other professions. Therefore, after the initial shock, teachers will use some of the capabilities – many in response to students who will make extensive use of the technology’s ability to complete assignments, but also help prepare lesson plans, monitor student performance, and the like. In my estimation, the study methods will not change for the most part and the use of technology as a study tool will still be on the margins, less than a third of the study time.

>> 10-20 years – During these years a transformation will occur in the man-machine relationship. Almost every activity will be accompanied by technology’s advice – Which stock should I invest in? The customer wants a discount, what to do? I have a pain on the right side, should I take paracetamol? Where to go on my next vacation? There is pressure to get married, how can I postpone the decision?… Countless applications will be developed in all areas of life that will allow a person to use technology to perform a wide variety of tasks. In my opinion, it is the time the education system will reach a turning point – it will no longer be possible to teach with the existing methods, there will be a better technological alternative for the study of almost every subject (history, language, sciences, etc.), the teachers will have to reinvent themselves, teach subjects that require creativity, humanity, sense of humor, curiosity, etc.., and become mainly the student’s mentor on how to choose, think critically, lead, etc. When this turning point occurs, a significant percentage of studies will be done with the help of technology.

Now, so you don’t think that I’m taking myself too seriously, I’ll tell you about Edison and his vision. In the twenties of the last century, Thomas Edison believed that cinema would become an innovative means of teaching, he expected that in a short time all learning would be accompanied by the use of films. Edison invested a lot in establishing a studio for filming educational content and donated projectors to schools. After about a decade, Edison retired from the subject on the grounds that it was not feasible on a large scale.